The Global Trade Order on Life Support: How China's Trade Surplus is Strangling Economies Worldwide
As China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% last year, reaching $1.2 trillion, the global economy was left reeling from its impact. Despite President Donald Trump's tariffs that severely reduced Chinese sales to the US, Chinese exports continued to expand at an astonishing rate, with sales to ASEAN countries increasing by over 13%. Meanwhile, Chinese imports remained flat, highlighting the country's insatiable appetite for raw materials.
The consequences of China's trade surplus are far-reaching and devastating. Manufacturers in rich countries across Europe are struggling to compete with low-cost imports from China, while poorer nations in Asia and Latin America are being overwhelmed by Chinese exports. The situation is reminiscent of a "China shock" β the wave of imports that followed China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 β which decimated manufacturing industries worldwide.
Critics argue that China's mercantilistic policies, which prioritize its own domestic interests over fair trade practices, are mopping up global demand and underselling other countries' shot at prosperity. The US-China trade imbalance is not just a matter of economic rivalry; it also represents a clash of values between the two nations.
However, China cannot disavow responsibility for its strategy's impact on the global economy. Its exports are changing minds about the benefits of open trade, with over 300 antidumping investigations launched by low- and middle-income countries against Chinese goods since 2020. Mexico has even imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese imports.
As the European Union now agrees with the US that the World Trade Organization (WTO) no longer works, China's role in shaping global trade governance is increasingly being questioned. The WTO's "most favored nation" rule, which ensures tariff reductions offered to one trading partner must be extended to all, may need to be revised.
The situation highlights the urgent need for a new system of global trade governance fit for the 21st century. China must reconsider its export-led strategy and work towards more balanced economic growth that benefits ordinary Chinese people, rather than just its own manufacturing sector.
In the absence of US leadership, China has an unprecedented opportunity to take on a more prominent role in shaping the global trading system. However, by sticking to its guns, China risks validating the US turn against the global economy and eroding faith in a trading system that has allowed it to thrive so far.
As China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% last year, reaching $1.2 trillion, the global economy was left reeling from its impact. Despite President Donald Trump's tariffs that severely reduced Chinese sales to the US, Chinese exports continued to expand at an astonishing rate, with sales to ASEAN countries increasing by over 13%. Meanwhile, Chinese imports remained flat, highlighting the country's insatiable appetite for raw materials.
The consequences of China's trade surplus are far-reaching and devastating. Manufacturers in rich countries across Europe are struggling to compete with low-cost imports from China, while poorer nations in Asia and Latin America are being overwhelmed by Chinese exports. The situation is reminiscent of a "China shock" β the wave of imports that followed China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 β which decimated manufacturing industries worldwide.
Critics argue that China's mercantilistic policies, which prioritize its own domestic interests over fair trade practices, are mopping up global demand and underselling other countries' shot at prosperity. The US-China trade imbalance is not just a matter of economic rivalry; it also represents a clash of values between the two nations.
However, China cannot disavow responsibility for its strategy's impact on the global economy. Its exports are changing minds about the benefits of open trade, with over 300 antidumping investigations launched by low- and middle-income countries against Chinese goods since 2020. Mexico has even imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese imports.
As the European Union now agrees with the US that the World Trade Organization (WTO) no longer works, China's role in shaping global trade governance is increasingly being questioned. The WTO's "most favored nation" rule, which ensures tariff reductions offered to one trading partner must be extended to all, may need to be revised.
The situation highlights the urgent need for a new system of global trade governance fit for the 21st century. China must reconsider its export-led strategy and work towards more balanced economic growth that benefits ordinary Chinese people, rather than just its own manufacturing sector.
In the absence of US leadership, China has an unprecedented opportunity to take on a more prominent role in shaping the global trading system. However, by sticking to its guns, China risks validating the US turn against the global economy and eroding faith in a trading system that has allowed it to thrive so far.