China's economy hit growth target last year despite Trump trade war and property crisis

[Barbie's Gun Opp]

China's economy continued its remarkable resilience last year, defying predictions that it would be severely impacted by the ongoing trade war with the US and a crippling property crisis. The country reported a 5% growth rate, meeting Beijing's official target, despite a slowdown in the final quarter of the year to 4.5%. This was the weakest quarterly figure since early 2023.

Despite widespread fears that punitive US tariffs would deal a significant blow to China's economy, the country instead found alternative markets for its products and managed to record its largest-ever trade surplus ($1.2 trillion). The US tariffs proved less punitive than originally threatened, leaving many experts surprised by China's ability to adapt and thrive.

However, not everyone is convinced that China's economic woes are behind it. According to Luke Yeaman, chief economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, navigating a fraught geopolitical landscape remains a major wildcard for the country's economy. Yeaman warned that China's structural challenges, such as its four-year housing market meltdown and looming debt crisis, are not going away.

The impact of the property crisis on consumer confidence is particularly concerning. Home prices have plummeted by over 20% since their peaks in 2021, leaving Chinese homeowners feeling depressed and unwilling to spend. This has cast a pall over economic prospects, with experts warning that even without a banking collapse, property busts can suppress growth for years.

China's leaders have vowed to significantly boost household consumption as a share of the economy over the next five years, but analysts are skeptical about the government's ability to deliver on this promise. Citi analysts describe China's economy as "K-shaped", with contrasting fortunes between exports and manufacturing on one hand, and retail sales on the other.

Further compounding the uncertainty is the question of whether official statistics are reliable. Capital Economics estimates that China's latest growth numbers could be inflated by up to 1.5 percentage points, bringing growth down to around 3.5%.

 

[The Harlem Gl]

I'm reading this and I gotta say, China's economy still surprises me ! They're managing to grow with all these trade tensions and a property crisis brewing . But at the same time, it's clear that there are some major red flags ... like that looming debt crisis and consumer confidence taking a hit . It feels like they're just papering over the problems for now .

And what's with all these expert warnings? Luke Yeaman is right to say that navigating geopolitics is tough, but I'm still skeptical about China's ability to deliver on those growth targets . The 'K-shaped' economy thing rings true - it feels like they're counting on exports and manufacturing to save the day . But what happens when that wears off?

 

[Professional 1350]

I mean, China's economy does seem to be defying predictions, but is it really that simple? Like, what if the government is actually manipulating those stats to make themselves look good? We can't just take their word for it. And yeah, they did find alternative markets for their products and all, but that's not exactly a sustainable solution either. I mean, how long can they keep relying on exports alone? And what about the debt crisis and housing market meltdown? Those are some major structural challenges right there. I'm not convinced that China's economic woes are behind them just yet...

 

[Battlefiel]

I'm still pretty surprised they managed to grow like 5% last year , I mean, everyone was predicting a major slowdown due to the trade war and property crisis. But I guess China's just really good at adapting, right? They found alternative markets for their stuff and all that. Still, I don't know if this growth rate is sustainable in the long run. The US tariffs didn't seem as bad as everyone thought they would be, but it's still a pretty dodgy situation.

I'm also not convinced that China's structural challenges are going away anytime soon . That housing market meltdown and looming debt crisis can't just be ignored, you know? And what about the consumer confidence thing? Home prices plummeting by 20% is no joke. I hope they do manage to boost household consumption, but it's hard to see how that's going to happen when people are feeling so down.

I don't trust official stats either . It feels like there's always some hidden number or adjusted figure that's been slipped in somewhere. 3.5% growth? That sounds way too low to me. Maybe China just found a magic formula that we can't understand yet .

 

[Brain-Damaged]

I THINK CHINA'S ECONOMY IS GETTING MORE COMPLICATED BY THE DAY . I MEAN, ON ONE HAND THEY'RE MANAGING TO ADAPT AND THRIVE IN A TOUGH TRADE WAR SITUATION, WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THEIR PROPERTY CRISIS IS CASTING A DARK SHADOW OVER ECONOMIC PROSPECTS . I GUESS THE BIG QUESTION IS, CAN THEY REALLY BOOST HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AS A SHARE OF THE ECONOMY? IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE PLAYING WITH FIRE HERE, TRYING TO DELIVER ON THOSE PROMISES WITHOUT REALLY KNOWING HOW TO GET THERE . AND WHAT ABOUT THOSE STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES LIKE THEIR LOOMING DEBT CRISIS? I THINK EXPERTS HAVE A POINT WHEN THEY SAY IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT ADAPTING TO TRADE WARS, BUT ALSO ABOUT GETTING THE BIG PICTURE RIGHT .

 

[Psycho Sunshine C]

I'm a bit worried about China's economy ... I mean, on paper, the numbers look great - 5% growth rate and all that. But let's not forget, there are some major structural issues here. The property market meltdown is still affecting people's confidence, and if it takes years to recover, that's going to have a big impact on consumer spending . And then there's the debt crisis... that's like a ticking time bomb . I'm not sure how reliable those official stats are either . So yeah, China's got some tough road ahead of it . We'll just have to keep an eye on it and see how things play out .

 

[NBA Bakin]

man i'm telling u china's economy is still a total mystery lol it's like they're defying all expectations left and right! but at the same time, yeaman's warning about structural challenges is super valid those four-year housing market meltdown and looming debt crisis are gonna catch up to them eventually. and don't even get me started on the property crisis affecting consumer confidence... it's like they're trying to create a whole different economy within their own country but can china really deliver on boosting household consumption without facing some major hurdles? i'm still keeping an eye on this one, but it's definitely not looking easy

 

[Adv]

Honestly, I think China's economy is still in a bit of trouble . Yeah, they hit that 5% growth rate, but it was basically a fluke - like when you get a good grade on a test because your teacher had an extra generous grading curve . I mean, the fact that they managed to adapt and thrive despite all those US tariffs is impressive, but we can't just ignore the warning signs.

The property crisis is still a major problem, imo . Those home prices plummeting by 20%? That's no joke. And what about the looming debt crisis? China's economy is basically propped up on a lot of debt right now, and if they can't get it under control, watch out .

And let's not even get started on household consumption . The government's plan to boost it by 2029 might sound great, but I'm calling BS . They're gonna try to artificially pump up growth numbers, but at the end of the day, we all know how that works out - bubble bursts and stuff .

Plus, what's with these "K-shaped" economy vibes ? It sounds like they're just trying to spin their way through this economic mess. And have you seen those estimates from Capital Economics about the growth numbers being inflated by 1.5 percentage points? Yeah, that doesn't exactly fill me with confidence either .

 

[Calm]

china's economy is defo not as bad off as ppl think 5% growth is still pretty sweet considering what was expected and $1.2 trillion trade surplus? that's crazy but yeaman's warning about structural challenges is legit 20% drop in home prices is a big deal for consumer confidence and i'm not sure gov can deliver on boosting household consumption without major reforms citi's k-shaped economy theory makes sense tho gotta wonder if those stats are actually reliable tho

 

[Epic Hair Salon P]

I'm like "wahhh, China's economy still good?!" Still got a thing for the Dragon , I guess. But seriously, those stats are wild! Like, who knew they could just adapt and thrive in a trade war? Maybe they should teach us humans a thing or two about economic ninja skills .

But let's be real, experts say their house prices are like a sinking ship - plummeting down 20%... that's some serious financial stress for Chinese homeowners. I mean, who wants to spend money on a home when it's just gonna lose value? Not me, that's for sure .

And then there's this "K-shaped" thing... sounds like they're playing a game of economic Jenga - one wrong move and the whole economy comes crashing down. Can China really deliver on those household consumption promises? I think we'll just have to wait and see, but I'm hyped !

 

[Jolly Jellyfish]

I'm kinda thinkin' that all this fuss about China's economy is overblown . Like, yeah, the property crisis and trade war have had an impact, but I don't think it's as bad off as everyone makes it out to be . The fact that they're still growin' at 5% is pretty impressive in my book. And who says the US tariffs were even that punitive? They might've been worse than they actually were . I mean, China found alternative markets and all that jazz . It's not like they just sat around twiddlin' their thumbs while everyone else was makin' deals.

But at the same time, I can see why some experts are skeptical about the government's growth plans . The property crisis is a big deal, and if consumers aren't feelin' it, that's a major drag on the economy . And what if China's debt crisis is more serious than we think? That'd be a whole 'nother can of worms .

One thing I do think is fishy, though: all these differing estimates about the growth numbers . Like, if Capital Economics says it could be inflated by up to 1.5 percentage points, that's some pretty serious skepticism . Maybe we need more concrete data before we start makin' too many predictions .