OPEC+ has unleashed a potent cocktail of high inflation, soaring oil prices, and potentially crippling US gas pump costs. The cartel's surprise move to slash global oil production by over 1.6 million barrels per day starting May is set to ratchet up Brent crude futures and the US benchmark WTI, with gasoline futures also taking an immediate hit.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, OPEC's decision will "reawaken the inflation monster" in the US economy. With the national average gas price currently hovering at $3.51, Kloza predicts prices could surge as high as $3.80 or $3.90 per gallon over the coming weeks.
The cut in oil production is already having a profound impact on gasoline futures, which are expected to be passed down to US drivers faster than the corresponding spike in oil prices. RBOB, the most closely watched wholesale gasoline price, has shot up by 8 cents a gallon or 3% in morning trading.
Kloza warned that while gas prices may not reach record levels of $5 per gallon this time around, they could still surge to $4 in the near future. However, he cautioned that US drivers might be back above year-earlier prices come late summer if there is a hurricane or other storms disrupting production along the Gulf Coast.
It's worth noting that even at current levels, US gas prices are just shy of February 2022's average price of $3.53 per gallon, which was just a day before Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Kloza acknowledged that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plans to release more oil could help temper price increases. Nonetheless, OPEC+ has demonstrated its ability to cut production and is motivated to do so.
According to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, OPEC's decision will "reawaken the inflation monster" in the US economy. With the national average gas price currently hovering at $3.51, Kloza predicts prices could surge as high as $3.80 or $3.90 per gallon over the coming weeks.
The cut in oil production is already having a profound impact on gasoline futures, which are expected to be passed down to US drivers faster than the corresponding spike in oil prices. RBOB, the most closely watched wholesale gasoline price, has shot up by 8 cents a gallon or 3% in morning trading.
Kloza warned that while gas prices may not reach record levels of $5 per gallon this time around, they could still surge to $4 in the near future. However, he cautioned that US drivers might be back above year-earlier prices come late summer if there is a hurricane or other storms disrupting production along the Gulf Coast.
It's worth noting that even at current levels, US gas prices are just shy of February 2022's average price of $3.53 per gallon, which was just a day before Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Kloza acknowledged that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plans to release more oil could help temper price increases. Nonetheless, OPEC+ has demonstrated its ability to cut production and is motivated to do so.