The world of betting on deportations and famine has become a growing trend, with mainstream media outlets eagerly covering these high-stakes wagers. Kalshi and Polymarket are two popular apps that allow users to bet on everything from presidential elections to the likelihood of Jeff Bezos getting divorced.
According to Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, the long-term vision is to "financialize everything" and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. While proponents argue that these platforms offer a more accurate forecast of the future than traditional institutions, critics claim that they are just as prone to manipulation as other markets.
One study found that prediction markets can be far from accurate, with some instances yielding results similar to those obtained by pollsters. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the platforms are consistently better at predicting outcomes.
The main issue lies in who makes up the crowd of users participating in these markets. According to Fortune review, Kalshi and Polymarket's user bases tend to skew towards crypto bros, which can lead to inaccurate results in edge cases.
Moreover, both apps have been accused of election interference. For instance, an ad ran by Polymarket featuring an AI-generated image with Zohran Mamdani's odds collapsing was deemed questionable. Similarly, Kalshi had signed deals with major broadcasters and publications despite losing bettors, which raises concerns about the platform's legitimacy.
The Intercept has sounded the alarm on this trend, warning that mainstream media outlets should be cautious when covering these platforms. As the editor-in-chief, Ben Messig stated, "It's been a devastating year for journalism — the worst in modern U.S. history."
In conclusion, while prediction markets may have some advantages over traditional polling methods, they are not without controversy and limitations. Mainstream media outlets should exercise caution when covering these platforms to avoid perpetuating misinformation or further eroding trust in journalism.
According to Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, the long-term vision is to "financialize everything" and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. While proponents argue that these platforms offer a more accurate forecast of the future than traditional institutions, critics claim that they are just as prone to manipulation as other markets.
One study found that prediction markets can be far from accurate, with some instances yielding results similar to those obtained by pollsters. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the platforms are consistently better at predicting outcomes.
The main issue lies in who makes up the crowd of users participating in these markets. According to Fortune review, Kalshi and Polymarket's user bases tend to skew towards crypto bros, which can lead to inaccurate results in edge cases.
Moreover, both apps have been accused of election interference. For instance, an ad ran by Polymarket featuring an AI-generated image with Zohran Mamdani's odds collapsing was deemed questionable. Similarly, Kalshi had signed deals with major broadcasters and publications despite losing bettors, which raises concerns about the platform's legitimacy.
The Intercept has sounded the alarm on this trend, warning that mainstream media outlets should be cautious when covering these platforms. As the editor-in-chief, Ben Messig stated, "It's been a devastating year for journalism — the worst in modern U.S. history."
In conclusion, while prediction markets may have some advantages over traditional polling methods, they are not without controversy and limitations. Mainstream media outlets should exercise caution when covering these platforms to avoid perpetuating misinformation or further eroding trust in journalism.
. like, i get it, they're trying to bring a new way of doing things but idk if its worth the risk 
. and btw, having crypto bros on both platforms is so sketchy 
. what's next? betting on whether or not avocados will be in style again 
? anywayz, gotta keep an eye on this trend cuz it could get messy 
i mean idk if prediction markets are for real or just some wild experiment gone wrong...can we trust them at all?! 
they're like a giant game of chance, but for real stuff like deportations and famine? it sounds super sketchy that crypto bros are getting all the power to decide what happens in our world 
can't have them just spreading misinformation and eroding trust in journalism even further 
it's like we're living in a dystopian novel where people are more interested in making money off others' misfortunes than actually trying to make sense of the world.
, but this whole betting on deportations and famine thing is a bit too much for me 
. I mean, can't we focus on something more positive? Like, have you tried out that new AR platform, Meta Quest 2? It's mind-blowing! 
.
. That's where I think we can make a real difference! But hey, at least it's interesting to see how these prediction markets are shaking things up 
. Can't we focus on finding solutions instead of betting on outcomes? And what's up with these "crypto bros" dominating these markets - isn't that just a bunch of tech-savvy folks making uninformed decisions based on hype alone 
?
It's crazy how people think prediction markets are some kind of super accurate forecast, but they're not even taking into account all the stuff that goes on behind the scenes. Like, have you seen those apps where people bet on politicians getting divorced? 
Anyway, I guess that's why The Intercept is sounding the alarm – gotta keep journalism real, you know? 
. The fact that they're making money off people's opinions and predictions is just wild 
I mean, who wants their opinions to be used as market fuel? 
I think it's high time for media outlets to fact-check these platforms before sharing their 'findings' with the world. We can't afford to lose trust in journalism when we need it most 
It's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure I'd want to put my money on it just yet.
Is that even a thing people are interested in? And what's up with all these platforms trying to "financialize everything"? 
But what really worries me is who these platforms are catering to - all those crypto bros might not be the most objective bunch 
. We need to make sure we're fact-checking and verifying info before sharing it, you know? 
. and whats with the election interference? seems like theyre more worried about makin a buck than gettin accurate info. news outlets gotta be careful not to perpetuate misinformation tho
. I'm all for a good debate, but this feels like it's more about making a quick buck than actually predicting outcomes 
and let me tell you it was a total mess 
and they were going through some major stuff 
but anyway, back to this betting thing... I mean I know some people are all about prediction markets and how they're more accurate than traditional polls 
but I'm not so sure 
especially with all these crypto bros getting involved 
it's just not right 
. It's been a bad year for journalism already, no need to make it worse