The Rise of Prediction Markets: Betting on Deportations, Famine, and Democracy's Downfall
In the wake of the 2016 election, polling missed the rise of Donald Trump, and collective distrust of traditional institutions has grown. Now, a new breed of apps is emerging that promise to harness the "wisdom of the crowd" to forecast major events – including deportations, famines, and even the outcome of elections.
These platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, offer users the chance to bet on a wide range of topics, from sports games to presidential elections. The promise is that these bets can provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods.
However, critics argue that these platforms are not as accurate as they claim, and their lack of diversity among users can lead to inaccurate results in edge cases. Moreover, the rise of these platforms has raised concerns about manipulation by deep-pocketed actors seeking to influence election outcomes.
The Intercept has found that Kalshi, a platform backed by Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm, has been embroiled in controversy over its handling of elections. The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, has argued that the regulator can only take action against bad actors, but experts say that the CFTC can remediate damage to election integrity after the fact.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has partnered with major news organizations, including CNN and Yahoo Finance, to offer its betting services. However, critics argue that these partnerships are more about growing the platform's customer base than ensuring accuracy or veracity.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messig, argues that the stakes are high and that "the media is eating it up" without critically examining these platforms' claims. He writes: "We're seeing a full-on authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government... The media needs to be more critical."
As the 2026 election approaches, The Intercept is calling on readers to support its reporting capacity in order to hit the ground running. With journalism facing its worst year in modern history, it's essential that we grow and expand our coverage.
In a world where truth is increasingly under attack, The Intercept remains committed to holding those in power accountable and providing accurate, unbiased reporting. Join us in our mission to defend democracy and press freedom.
In the wake of the 2016 election, polling missed the rise of Donald Trump, and collective distrust of traditional institutions has grown. Now, a new breed of apps is emerging that promise to harness the "wisdom of the crowd" to forecast major events – including deportations, famines, and even the outcome of elections.
These platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, offer users the chance to bet on a wide range of topics, from sports games to presidential elections. The promise is that these bets can provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods.
However, critics argue that these platforms are not as accurate as they claim, and their lack of diversity among users can lead to inaccurate results in edge cases. Moreover, the rise of these platforms has raised concerns about manipulation by deep-pocketed actors seeking to influence election outcomes.
The Intercept has found that Kalshi, a platform backed by Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm, has been embroiled in controversy over its handling of elections. The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, has argued that the regulator can only take action against bad actors, but experts say that the CFTC can remediate damage to election integrity after the fact.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has partnered with major news organizations, including CNN and Yahoo Finance, to offer its betting services. However, critics argue that these partnerships are more about growing the platform's customer base than ensuring accuracy or veracity.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messig, argues that the stakes are high and that "the media is eating it up" without critically examining these platforms' claims. He writes: "We're seeing a full-on authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government... The media needs to be more critical."
As the 2026 election approaches, The Intercept is calling on readers to support its reporting capacity in order to hit the ground running. With journalism facing its worst year in modern history, it's essential that we grow and expand our coverage.
In a world where truth is increasingly under attack, The Intercept remains committed to holding those in power accountable and providing accurate, unbiased reporting. Join us in our mission to defend democracy and press freedom.
. like, sure the 'wisdom of the crowd' sounds cool and all, but it's just a fancy way of saying "we don't know what we're doing" 
. and don't even get me started on kalshi and polymarket - they're just profiting off people's desperation to predict election outcomes 
. i mean, can't we just rely on good ol' fashioned journalism like the intercept is trying to do? 
at least with them, you know what you're getting - accurate reporting that's not influenced by deep-pocketed actors. these prediction markets are just a slippery slope to where we're all betting on stuff and losing faith in institutions 
. let's focus on supporting real journalism instead of just chasing the next big thing 
... I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm all for innovation and stuff, but when it comes to predicting major events that affect our lives, I think we need a lot more caution 
... Can't we just stick with good old-fashioned polling and fact-checking? 
need to be more critical about where we get our info from
. And it's not like they're even proven to be accurate. I remember back in 2016 when polling missed the whole Trump thing and people were all "what happened?" 
. I'm not saying they're bad or anything, but...I don't know, man. It seems like they might be more of a gamble than a guarantee 
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. but heyz, if prediction markets r gonna be a thing, i hope ppl are prepared 4 the potential consequences 
. I mean, have we seen any reliable data on how accurate these prediction markets are? It seems like just a bunch of hype to me 
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. And what about all the people who can't afford to bet or don't even want to get involved in that kinda thing? It's just not fair 
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. That doesn't sit well with me... what if they're manipulating the results to make some rich folks richer? 
. We need to make sure we're not sacrificing accuracy for the sake of convenience or profit 
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