Vladimir Putin may have been on edge last weekend as he learned about Donald Trump's Venezuelan coup, wondering how it would affect oil prices, a vital lifeline for Russia's economy. Crude oil has lubricated the Russian economy for decades, and the threat of falling oil prices, prompted by US plans to control Venezuela's rigs, will be a major concern.
Analysts are divided on how quickly Venezuela can revive its creaking oil industry and impact global oil prices, potentially squeezing Russia's income. The US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last year have already reduced Moscow's receipts from oil sales in dollars, worsening Putin's financial situation.
However, some experts believe that a fall in oil prices would be catastrophic for Putin's ability to fund the war effort and continue grinding down Ukrainian resistance. They portray Russia's economy as a house of cards, ready to collapse if economic pressure is directed at Moscow.
Russia's economic growth has slowed to almost zero after the Kremlin calmed inflation caused by government military spending. The International Monetary Fund predicts 0.6% growth in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Interest rates are high, taxes are rising again this year, and unemployment has fallen to nearly 2%.
While some point to Iran as an example of how sanctions can hurt an economy, Russia's strategy seems designed to insulate the patient from outside interference. Much of Putin's reserves are spent, and oil revenues have fallen from 50% to 25% of state income. However, he has found internal resources to fill the void, mainly through higher taxes on households and businesses.
Experts agree that Putin is milking Russia's economy for the war effort without worrying about long-term consequences. China remains a friend and buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit, even if India and other trade partners turn away under tougher sanctions.
Ukraine has access to €90 billion from the EU, and Putin has reserves to keep paying soldiers and their families. Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is just below 20%, its annual spending deficit is around 3.5%, and inflation has tamed after a surge following the invasion.
Europe needs to tighten its grip on Russian trade while supporting Ukraine militarily. Four years of weak sanctions allowed Putin time to reorganize, but a tougher stance may not trigger an economic collapse. Instead, it should work every angle to bring the war to an end.
Analysts are divided on how quickly Venezuela can revive its creaking oil industry and impact global oil prices, potentially squeezing Russia's income. The US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last year have already reduced Moscow's receipts from oil sales in dollars, worsening Putin's financial situation.
However, some experts believe that a fall in oil prices would be catastrophic for Putin's ability to fund the war effort and continue grinding down Ukrainian resistance. They portray Russia's economy as a house of cards, ready to collapse if economic pressure is directed at Moscow.
Russia's economic growth has slowed to almost zero after the Kremlin calmed inflation caused by government military spending. The International Monetary Fund predicts 0.6% growth in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Interest rates are high, taxes are rising again this year, and unemployment has fallen to nearly 2%.
While some point to Iran as an example of how sanctions can hurt an economy, Russia's strategy seems designed to insulate the patient from outside interference. Much of Putin's reserves are spent, and oil revenues have fallen from 50% to 25% of state income. However, he has found internal resources to fill the void, mainly through higher taxes on households and businesses.
Experts agree that Putin is milking Russia's economy for the war effort without worrying about long-term consequences. China remains a friend and buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit, even if India and other trade partners turn away under tougher sanctions.
Ukraine has access to €90 billion from the EU, and Putin has reserves to keep paying soldiers and their families. Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is just below 20%, its annual spending deficit is around 3.5%, and inflation has tamed after a surge following the invasion.
Europe needs to tighten its grip on Russian trade while supporting Ukraine militarily. Four years of weak sanctions allowed Putin time to reorganize, but a tougher stance may not trigger an economic collapse. Instead, it should work every angle to bring the war to an end.
he's got so much on his plate with the oil prices and all but if it keeps falling idk how russia's economy is gonna hold up 
Putin's finances are already super thin, like seriously struggling to keep up with the war effort in ukraine, and now add this oil price drama and it's like a house of cards waiting to fall 
but seriously, europe needs to step up its game and support ukraine more, we can't just sit back and let putin get away with this 
. I mean, he's been doing this whole " milking Russia's economy for the war effort" thing for years and his reserves are still pretty solid 
, so that's gotta count for something. And let's not forget, Europe's all about supporting Ukraine militarily anyway, might as well get some leverage out of it too 
. The whole sanctions thing just seems like a waste of time and resources to me, Putin will just find ways to adapt and make more money somehow 
️. Maybe instead of just tightening the noose on trade, Europe should be working towards bringing an end to this whole war thing 
. I don't think it's about Russia collapsing or falling apart - it's more about making sure Ukraine gets the help they need and that Putin doesn't get away with his actions 
.
Putin's got a lot of debt to pay off 
and if oil prices drop too far, it'll be a disaster for him 
He's been living on borrowed time 
but I think he's found ways to patch things up 
and support Ukraine more 
we can't just sit back and let Putin take over 
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like China and North Korea still buying from them...not to mention India's gonna keep trading despite the sanctions 
. My heart is literally breaking thinking about the innocent people caught in the middle of all this 
. We gotta do better, let's make some noise and support Ukraine! 
but what's the real cost of this war effort? are we just propping up Putin's military machine or is there a way to support Ukraine without breaking the bank? 
. The fact that experts are saying Russia's economy is like a house of cards 
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. Putin's got a lot of tricks up his sleeve and seems to be able to adapt pretty quickly to any situation. And let's be real, if anyone gets hurt from weaker sanctions, it's probably going to be Ukraine, not Russia 
. I'm all for taking a tougher stance on trade with Russia, but we need to make sure we're supporting Ukraine at the same time 
. I mean, oil is such a huge part of their economy, and if prices drop too much, it could be super tough for Putin's government 
. And can we please talk about how the US and EU are trying to work together on this? It's like they're finally doing something about it 
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. Four years in, Putin still has time to reorganize, but if they want to bring this war to an end, they need to tighten the noose ASAP 
. It's like Europe needs to step up its game and put some real pressure on Russia before it's too late 
. But for real, if oil prices drop, Russia's economy is toast 
️
. Like, experts say they're already living paycheck to paycheque 
. EU needs to get tough on Russian trade while supporting Ukraine, can't let Putin just milk their economy for war profits without consequences 
And what's up with China and North Korea being all friendly to Russia again? 