Donald Trump’s Nixon Moment That Wasn’t

The diplomatic spectacle in Beijing last week has left many wondering if this marks a turning point in America’s relationship with China. At first glance, it appears to be business as usual – a meeting of two powerful leaders exchanging pleasantries and striking minor trade deals. However, scratch beneath the surface, and a more troubling narrative emerges.

The 1971 visit by Richard Nixon to Beijing is often cited as an example of how hard-liners can pursue softer lines on contentious issues while still retaining credibility among their base. However, Trump’s recent actions in Beijing have arguably done the opposite: he scrapped a policy that combined tough diplomacy with action to protect American interests and check Chinese power, opting instead for a more conciliatory approach.

The shift in policy imperils Americans and emboldens China – setting the stage for a future crisis. The notion that only a hard-liner can pursue a softer line has been a Washington commonplace for decades. However, this narrative deserves scrutiny in light of recent events. In recent years, both Republicans and Democrats have largely agreed to treat China as a strategic competitor.

The United States has taken steps to reduce its economic exposure to China, tighten export controls on advanced technology, and strengthen its web of alliances across the Indo-Pacific. So, what does Trump’s shift mean for these efforts? By embracing a personal bond with Xi Jinping, he appears to be signaling that stability can be achieved through charm rather than competition.

This approach is a far cry from the hawkish stance taken by his own administration in the past or even the Biden administration’s continued commitment to treating China as a strategic competitor. Moreover, Trump’s actions have significant implications for American industries and workers. By caving on trade deals that would have limited Chinese exports, he has essentially given Beijing carte blanche to continue its predatory practices – including subsidies, financing, regulatory protection, and industrial policy that no Western country can match.

China’s massive trade surplus in manufacturing goods now stands at over $2 trillion, allowing it to dictate terms to the rest of the world. Robin Harding of the Financial Times aptly put it: “China is making trade impossible” by dominating high-end industries through its vast state apparatus.

Jessica Chen Weiss, a former Biden State Department official who advocates for interdependence and cooperation with China, argues that Trump’s shift presents an opportunity. However, her argument fails to account for Beijing’s actions that threaten American livelihoods and security. The trouble with Trump’s approach is that it not only fails to address these underlying issues but also risks emboldening China’s aggressive behavior.

By signaling that America’s economic relationship with allies is no more privileged than its relationship with rivals, Trump has created a toxic environment where countries are forced to choose between deindustrialization and protectionism. A serious U.S. response would involve coordinating with Europe, Japan, and Korea on common tariffs and pressing Beijing on the underlying imbalance.

Instead, Trump appears to be treating the European Union as a rival rather than a partner, signaling that America’s economic relationships with allies are no more privileged than those with rivals. The most striking signal of last week’s summit was on cybersecurity: a Chinese state-affiliated group called Volt Typhoon has been pre-positioning itself inside American IT networks – including water utilities, transportation systems, electric grids, and the like.

Should a conflict arise between the U.S. and China, this group could unleash devastating attacks on American infrastructure. When asked about this issue aboard Air Force One, Trump downplayed the threat, essentially shrugging it off with a nonchalant remark that the U.S. spies on China just as much. This response is not only inadequate but also worrying – given the gravity of the situation.

Trump’s Beijing blunder represents a moment of opportunity lost for America. By embracing a personal bond with Xi Jinping and caving on trade deals that would have limited Chinese exports, he has imperiled Americans and emboldened China – setting the stage for a future crisis. The stakes are high, and it remains to be seen whether Trump’s gamble will pay off in the long run.