Tensions Ease, but Trust Remains a Bridge Too Far for Modi and Xi

The meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi marks another effort to repair ties strained by a 2020 border clash. The encounter is part of a cautious thaw between rival neighbors, but beneath the surface lies deep mistrust.

For decades, India and China have navigated their complex relationship with varying degrees of success. Their economies have grown substantially since their 1962 war, but China’s has far outpaced India’s, resulting in a large trade surplus. This economic rivalry adds to longstanding territorial and strategic differences. The recent thaw is driven by pragmatism – both countries recognize the benefits of cooperation in an increasingly multipolar world.

Xi emphasized that China approaches relations with India from a “strategic and long-term perspective,” highlighting the importance of mutual understanding and respect. He urged high-quality cooperation between the two nations, emphasizing their shared interests as major members of the Global South. However, trust cannot be built overnight.

The 2020 military clash in Ladakh was a stark reminder of the risks of miscalculation. At least 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives, and four Chinese service members were killed. The standoff that followed showcased the depth of mistrust between the two nations. Steps have been taken to ease tensions since then, but deep-seated concerns remain.

Modi has stated that “mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interest” are essential for progress. India has sought to capitalize on China’s rising labor costs and strained ties with the US and Europe by positioning itself as an alternative base for foreign manufacturers. New Delhi has also viewed Beijing’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative with concern, strongly opposing it.

India’s strategic partnership with the US has further raised concerns in Beijing, which views this relationship as part of efforts to counter China’s rise. This adds another layer of complexity to their already delicate relationship. While the recent thaw is a step in the right direction, trust must be built through sustained engagement and cooperation.

Xi’s visit marks a significant moment in the ongoing effort to stabilize ties between India and China. The BRICS summit provides a platform for Xi and Modi to address trade imbalances, supply chain issues, and market access concerns. In an increasingly multipolar world, nations must adapt and find common ground to achieve shared goals.

However, trust is not something that can be imposed or hastily built – it requires time, effort, and a genuine commitment to understanding each other’s perspectives. As the two leaders work towards building a more stable relationship, maintaining transparency and open communication channels will be crucial. By doing so, they can build on the momentum generated by their recent meeting and create an environment conducive to growth and cooperation.

Ultimately, success will depend on both nations’ ability to put aside differences and work towards a common goal – one that benefits not just themselves but also the wider region and global community. As Xi’s visit serves as a test case for whether this recent thaw can translate into a broader stabilization of ties, it remains to be seen whether they will succeed in building a more robust and durable partnership.