Floods of Discontent: The Limits of Planning in Nepal’s Mountainous Terrain

The recent floods in Nepal have raised questions about the effectiveness of conventional prevention measures. Dr. Basanta Raj Adhikari, Director of the Center for Disaster Studies at Tribhuvan University’s Institute of Engineering, has been studying the region’s vulnerabilities and advocating for a shift towards risk-informed adaptation.

Nepal’s complex mountain terrain makes it nearly impossible to predict every extreme event. Flood velocities have reached as high as 170 to 180 kilometers per hour, posing significant threats from hazards such as ice and snow avalanches, and glacial lake outburst floods. Rather than being fatalistic about the situation, Adhikari proposes identifying high-risk hotspots through satellite observation and supplementing these with ground-based monitoring and early-warning systems.

This approach is not merely a plea for more funding or resources; it’s an acknowledgment of the limitations of traditional planning methods in the face of rapidly changing environmental conditions. Nepal’s unique geography, characterized by steep slopes and complex terrain, makes comprehensive monitoring nearly impossible. The country’s reliance on conventional prevention measures has been revealed as insufficient.

Adhikari’s proposal emphasizes risk-informed adaptation, which suggests a more profound shift in thinking than mere adaptation of existing best practices. By acknowledging the impossibility of predicting every extreme event, he opens up a conversation about the limits of planning itself. What does it mean to plan for uncertainty? How can we balance caution with the imperative to develop and grow?

Nepal has historically struggled to strike this balance. Rapid urbanization, driven by economic growth and population expansion, has put immense pressure on its infrastructure. The 2014 landslide in Jiri killed dozens of people, highlighting the risks of unregulated development in sensitive areas. Since then, there have been several high-profile incidents, including the recent floods.

The international community can play a significant role in supporting Nepal’s efforts to adapt to these challenges. Donors and partners must recognize the value of risk-informed adaptation over traditional prevention measures. By prioritizing this approach, Nepal can begin to build resilience into its development strategy.

Adhikari’s proposal has implications beyond Nepal’s borders. As climate change continues to reshape our understanding of environmental risks, his emphasis on risk-informed adaptation could become a model for other developing countries facing similar challenges. In regions like the Himalayas, where glaciers are melting at an alarming rate and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, it’s essential that we rethink our approach to planning and development.

As Nepal begins to rebuild from this latest disaster, Adhikari’s words serve as a reminder of the need for humility in the face of uncertainty. By embracing the complexity of its mountain terrain and acknowledging the limits of traditional planning methods, Nepal can begin to build a more resilient future – one that balances growth with caution, and development with environmental stewardship.

Ultimately, this is not just about floods or landslides; it’s about our capacity to confront the unknown and adapt in the face of uncertainty. As we watch Nepal navigate these challenges, we are reminded of the importance of humility, resilience, and – above all – a willingness to rethink our assumptions about what is possible.