The One Nation Effect: A Wake-Up Call for Australian Politics

The recent byelection in Secret Harbour, a coastal electorate south of Perth’s CBD, sent shockwaves through Australian politics. One Nation’s candidate, Luke Herdegen, secured a stunning victory with a primary vote swing of 30 percent, carved from both Labor and the Liberals.

This result has far-reaching implications for the major parties and their strategies in the lead-up to the next state and federal elections. The byelection was never about policy; it was about discontent with the status quo. Herdegen’s pitch was simple: “If you’re fed up, vote for me.” Many voters responded by abandoning their traditional parties.

The Secret Harbour electorate is characterized by high mortgages, grocery prices, and fuel costs. One Nation capitalized on the frustration of disaffected voters who felt abandoned by Labor and the Liberals. The fact that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was absent from the battleground only added to the perception that his government is out of touch with ordinary Australians.

The discontent is not just limited to Labor; One Nation’s success in Secret Harbour also raises questions about the viability of the Liberal Party. For too long, Australian politics has been dominated by two major parties, with minor parties playing a peripheral role. But One Nation’s breakthrough suggests that this traditional binary may be crumbling.

Voters are increasingly looking for alternatives to the major parties, and it’s not just about policy; it’s about perceived authenticity and connection. Former Liberal candidates donned the orange during the campaign, not as a shift towards One Nation’s ideology but rather as recognition of its grassroots appeal.

Even Legalise Cannabis candidates saw One Nation as their best bet for upending the current status quo. The major parties would do well to take heed of this result. For Labor, it’s a wake-up call about reconnecting with its traditional heartlands. The party’s dissection of its campaign will reveal missteps, including the selection of candidate Georgia Tree, who lived in a $1.4 million house 61 kilometers away from the electorate.

For the Liberals, this result is a stark reminder that their existential crisis is far from over. They still haven’t grasped how to respond to One Nation’s populist appeal. With a federal election potentially just 18 months away and the next state election in 2029, both major parties have some serious homework to do.

Migration has emerged as a constant bugbear for voters, with current rates contributing to the housing crisis in the state. Labor may need to move its migration changes up the priority list. As the major parties grapple with these implications, they would do well to remember that One Nation’s success is not just about its own ideology but also about the perceived failures of the existing system.

Voters are looking for change, and it’s up to the major parties to deliver. In the coming months, we can expect a flurry of activity from Labor and the Liberals as they try to respond to this wake-up call. But one thing is clear: Australian politics will never be the same again.