The Burnham Bounce: What Labour’s Protégé Means for Manchester’s Mayoral Election

Bev Craig, Andy Burnham’s “protégé” and Labour’s candidate, is poised to take the reins in Greater Manchester’s mayoral election. While pundits predict a landslide victory for Ms. Craig, the real question is what this means for the city region’s future under her leadership.

As Prime Minister, Andy Burnham’s influence extends far beyond Manchester’s borders. As the city region’s first elected mayor, he built a reputation as a champion of devolution and “good growth in every postcode.” His return to national politics has triggered a by-election, with Labour’s Bev Craig taking advantage of his popularity.

Bev Craig’s campaign material bears an uncanny resemblance to Burnham’s own branding. Her policy offerings blend continuity with new initiatives, such as extending free bus passes to 11- to 16-year-olds. This move may be seen as a shrewd attempt to capitalize on Burnham’s popularity, but it also raises questions about Craig’s willingness to break free from her mentor’s shadow.

As the first female and LGBTQ+ leader of Manchester City Council, Ms. Craig has earned a reputation for working closely with Andy Burnham during his tenure as mayor. However, in an interview with The Independent, she emphasized her desire to forge her own path: “I’m my own person, and I’ve always operated that way in politics.” This ambivalence towards her role as Burnham’s protégé is telling.

Labour suffered a significant blow across Greater Manchester in May’s local elections, losing 108 seats to the Green Party, Reform, and Liberal Democrats. Ms. Craig attributes these dismal results to national issues rather than local ones, but acknowledges that the “political landscape is very different now.” This change in context raises an important question: can Bev Craig bring Labour’s voters back to the party by addressing their grievances and making a tangible difference in their lives?

If elected, Ms. Craig may have more power than Burnham ever had as mayor, thanks to her ability to make demands directly to the Prime Minister. She has already indicated that she will not hesitate to write to Burnham in her first week, requesting greater powers for Manchester’s city region.

The Devolution Dilemma

Bev Craig’s plans for devolution and power-sharing are a departure from the controversy surrounding No 10 North, Burnham’s flagship policy. While he has pledged to move power out of London and drive “good growth in every postcode,” Ms. Craig wants to eradicate extractive or empty businesses from Manchester’s high streets, and give local residents more control over housing decisions.

This shift in focus towards greater autonomy for local authorities is a significant development. It speaks to the changing needs of city regions like Greater Manchester, where voters are increasingly demanding more say in how their communities are run. Bev Craig’s willingness to push for devolution and accountability sets her apart from her predecessor, but also raises questions about her ability to deliver on these promises.

The Burnham Bounce

The prediction that Labour will win the election by a landslide margin of 65% to 35% is based on More in Common’s latest poll. While this may seem like a foregone conclusion, it belies the complexities of the contest. Bev Craig’s victory will be seen as a direct result of the “Burnham bounce,” with voters flocking to Labour due to their affection for the Prime Minister.

This phenomenon is not unique to Greater Manchester. It speaks to a broader trend in British politics, where party loyalty and personal connections are increasingly driving electoral outcomes. The question is whether Bev Craig will be able to sustain this momentum, or if her own policies and leadership style will ultimately define her tenure as mayor.

As the counting of votes continues, one thing is clear: Bev Craig’s election as Greater Manchester’s next mayor marks a significant turning point in the city region’s history. With Andy Burnham at the helm of the country, his protégé’s rise to power raises important questions about the relationship between national and local politics. As Ms. Craig prepares to take office, she must navigate this delicate balance, all while forging her own path as a leader in her own right.

The Burnham bounce will be a defining feature of Bev Craig’s tenure as mayor. But whether this momentum will ultimately propel her to success, or leave her struggling to find her footing in the treacherous waters of local politics, remains to be seen.