Russia is employing creative tactics to circumvent US sanctions and ensure that cheap Russian crude oil continues to flow into Indian refineries. Since the Ukraine war erupted, India has emerged as the world's second-largest buyer of Russian oil, taking advantage of discounted prices due to Western sanctions.
US President Donald Trump has been vocal in his criticism of India's reliance on Russian oil, attempting to coerce New Delhi into halting its purchases. However, India has remained steadfast, arguing that its energy policies should be shaped by domestic considerations rather than external pressures.
The latest round of US sanctions, which target companies and refineries purchasing oil from Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil exporters, has had a limited impact on Indian oil imports. While there was an initial drop in Russian oil purchases, figures suggest that the decrease is now around 30%, with four out of seven major oil refineries still reliant on Russian crude.
Industry analysts warn that these sanctions are unlikely to stem India's reliance on cheap Russian oil entirely. Russia has already begun reorganizing its supply chain to bypass US sanctions, with new players emerging as shadow middlemen between the Russian oil giants and Indian refineries.
"It looks like the new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. "Obviously, the Russians aren't going to sit and just watch the sanctions take effect – they'll try to bypass them as much as possible."
Falakshahi predicts that it will only be a matter of two or three months before the full supply chain is reorganized, with most barrels supplied by companies other than Rosneft and Lukoil. The Indian government has thus far issued no direct mandate for state or private refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil, instead encouraging them to operate in their best interests.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has vowed that shipments of Russian oil to India will remain uninterrupted, defying the US sanctions. The low price of Russian oil is a significant bargain for Indian refineries, with discounts currently standing at $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
US President Donald Trump has been vocal in his criticism of India's reliance on Russian oil, attempting to coerce New Delhi into halting its purchases. However, India has remained steadfast, arguing that its energy policies should be shaped by domestic considerations rather than external pressures.
The latest round of US sanctions, which target companies and refineries purchasing oil from Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil exporters, has had a limited impact on Indian oil imports. While there was an initial drop in Russian oil purchases, figures suggest that the decrease is now around 30%, with four out of seven major oil refineries still reliant on Russian crude.
Industry analysts warn that these sanctions are unlikely to stem India's reliance on cheap Russian oil entirely. Russia has already begun reorganizing its supply chain to bypass US sanctions, with new players emerging as shadow middlemen between the Russian oil giants and Indian refineries.
"It looks like the new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. "Obviously, the Russians aren't going to sit and just watch the sanctions take effect – they'll try to bypass them as much as possible."
Falakshahi predicts that it will only be a matter of two or three months before the full supply chain is reorganized, with most barrels supplied by companies other than Rosneft and Lukoil. The Indian government has thus far issued no direct mandate for state or private refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil, instead encouraging them to operate in their best interests.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has vowed that shipments of Russian oil to India will remain uninterrupted, defying the US sanctions. The low price of Russian oil is a significant bargain for Indian refineries, with discounts currently standing at $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
they're like "oh we'll just make some new friends" and poof! new supply chain 
it's not gonna work though fam, india's all about that affordable oil life 
i mean who wouldn't want a 9-10 dollar per barrel discount on their russian crude? 
Russia's like "hold my beer" and is already trying to reorganize its supply chain to get around those sanctions 
Putin's all confident, but let's be real, it's gonna take a while for India to switch ships 
Those new players emerging are probably just waiting for the right moment to swoop in and make some cash 
It's all about supply and demand, baby! The Indian government's playing it cool, but deep down they know Russia's got them wrapped around its finger 
russia's already got new players in the mix, gonna be a whole new supply chain thingy soon 
anyone think india should be worried about it tho?
it's like we're playing a game where the rules keep changing, but the stakes stay the same... US sanctions try to force India's hand, but Russia just finds new players to partner with... meanwhile, the Indian refineries get to reap the benefits of discounted prices... but at what cost to our own energy security? 
. I mean, the US is trying to hit 'em up with sanctions and whatnot, but India's just like "nah, we're good" 
. And honestly, who can blame 'em? $9-10 per barrel cheaper than Saudi or Iraqi oil? That's a no-brainer for Indian refineries! 
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India's got oil for sale, and Russia's willing to buy... just don't expect US sanctions to stop 'em anytime soon 
! India's just gonna keep on buying all that cheap Russian oil like it's going out of style 
. Like, come on guys, can't we have a global conversation about energy policy instead of just trying to strong-arm countries into doing what we want? 
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I feel like India is being really hard on itself by not taking a clear stance against the US sanctions 
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. And let's be real, $9-$10 per barrel is a pretty big deal for Indian refineries 